Expert Comment: At COP31, ‘Zero Waste’ must move from climate ambition to climate action

As COP31 begins in Antalya, Türkiye, a significant shift is taking place in the global climate agenda. For the first time, Zero Waste and Methane Reduction has been identified as one of the ten priority themes of the COP31 Presidency's Action Agenda, accompanied by a global implementation target to halve the projected growth in waste generation by 2035. 

This recognition is both timely and essential: waste is no longer simply an environmental management challenge, but a critical opportunity for climate mitigation, public health protection and sustainable development. 

International recognition of waste management as a climate mitigation priority has grown significantly. The Global Methane Pledge, launched at COP26 in Glasgow, United Kingdom, established a collective target to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste encouraged countries to integrate waste-sector methane targets into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). COP30 in Belém, Brazil, launched the No Organic Waste (NOW!) Initiative, aiming to cut methane emissions from organic waste by 30% by 2030. Building on this momentum, the incoming COP31 Presidency in Antalya, Türkiye, has placed Zero Waste first among its ten Action Agenda priorities, with a target to halve projected growth in global waste generation by 2035.

The climate case is compelling. Waste is the third-largest source of human-caused methane emissions, accounting for nearly 20% of global methane emissions, yet the sector remains underfunded and inadequately monitored. Beyond direct methane reductions, improved waste management, including circular economy initiatives and advanced treatment technologies, has the potential to significantly reduce national greenhouse gas emissions, as highlighted in studies on emissions accounting and waste management optimisation. 

The world generates over 2.5 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, a figure projected to increase by 50% by 2050. The greatest challenges are often concentrated where reliable information is most limited. Across low-income countries, where over 97% of waste is either uncollected, dumped or burned, uncontrolled dumpsites and open burning continue to threaten communities, contaminate water resources and release climate pollutants. Without knowing where these sites are, how much waste they receive and what emissions they generate, effective intervention becomes extremely difficult.

At the University of Oxford, our research is addressing precisely this evidence gap. Through GeoWaste, we combine artificial intelligence, satellite imagery and geospatial analysis to identify and characterise major dumpsites, assess potential methane emissions and map their proximity to vulnerable communities.

Our objective is to make invisible emissions visible, enabling governments, cities and financial institutions to prioritise interventions, direct climate finance and measure progress. But technology alone is not the solution. Data must lead to action: closing and rehabilitating uncontrolled dumpsites, preventing food waste, expanding waste collection, diverting organic materials towards composting and anaerobic digestion, and supporting inclusive, circular waste systems. 

COP31 must mark a turning point. Zero Waste cannot remain a political slogan or an aspirational target. It must become an implementation agenda backed by reliable evidence, dedicated financing, measurable methane reductions and meaningful support for the communities most affected. 

We already have many of the solutions. What we need now is the political commitment to scale them. 

We cannot manage what we cannot measure. And we cannot deliver meaningful climate action while continuing to overlook the world's dumpsites.