Coal-powered economic growth linked to rising urban air pollution and deaths in India
Research led by the University of Oxford has found that rapid economic growth brought major gains in access to electricity and cleaner cooking in India, but growing reliance on coal-fired power has contributed to worsening outdoor air pollution and a sharp rise in urban air-pollution-related deaths. The study has been published today in Nature Cities.
The new study estimated that between 2000 and 2020, urban deaths in India attributable to fine particulate matter exposure rose from approximately 670,000 to 870,000 an increase of around 30%. Image credit: Sumit_Kumar_99, Getty Images.
Rapid economic growth in India since 2000 has enabled millions of people to move towards cleaner cooking fuels and technologies, reducing exposure to household air pollution. But this growth has also driven a near-fourfold increase in electricity demand. According to the new study, over three quarters (76%) of this demand was supplied by coal, accompanied by a sharp rise in sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions. This has increased concentrations of sulphate aerosols and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), leading to a rise in the number of deaths caused by urban air pollution.
The findings reveal contrasting public-health consequences of India’s economic and energy transition: declining risks from pollution inside homes alongside increasing exposure to polluted outdoor air.
“This is not simply a story of development making pollution worse. Rising incomes have enabled a major transition towards cleaner household energy, with important health benefits. The challenge is to ensure that the electricity supporting those gains is itself generated more cleanly.”
The researchers combined satellite observations, atmospheric analysis, chemical transport modelling, socioeconomic and energy data, and population and mortality data to trace the connections between economic growth, electricity demand, power generation, air pollution and health.
Between 2000 and 2020, India’s GDP per capita increased from around US $600–$700 to more than US $2,000, while electricity demand rose from approximately 450 terawatt-hours (TWh) to almost 2,000 TWh. The analysis found that a 1% increase in GDP per capita was associated with an approximately 1.14% increase in electricity demand.
This was accompanied by a significant increase in the number of coal-fired power plants in India, with 71 being commissioned before 2000, and another 182 commissioned between 2001 and 2024.
Urban aerosol pollution increased markedly during this period. Sulphate – which can form in the atmosphere from SO₂ released by coal combustion – increased from approximately 35.5% of total urban airborne particle pollution in 2000 to 46.4% in 2020.
Atmospheric modelling indicated that the power sector’s contribution to total urban aerosol loading increased from around 16% in 2000 to 36% in 2020, making it the largest anthropogenic contributor in the analysis. The largest increases were concentrated across northern and eastern India, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where dense populations overlap with extensive coal-fired power infrastructure.
The study estimated that urban deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure increased from approximately 670,000 in 2000 to 870,000 in 2020 – an increase of around 30%.
The increase associated with power-sector emissions was particularly pronounced. The modelling estimated that urban PM2.5-attributable deaths associated with power-sector emissions rose from approximately 15,000 in 2000 to nearly 300,000 in 2020.
The study also highlights a very different trend inside Indian homes. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking increased from approximately 25% of the population in 2000 to nearly 75% by 2023. Over a similar period, independent health datasets show a decline in deaths attributable to household air pollution, falling from approximately 1.25–1.30 million a year around 2010 to approximately 1 million a year by 2023.
“Our findings have implications well beyond India. They show how difficult it can be to break the link between economic development and coal dependence when rapidly rising electricity demand and energy-security concerns prolong reliance on existing coal infrastructure. Coal-fired power not only worsens air quality and harms public health; its aerosol emissions can also reduce solar power output, directly weakening the clean energy transition.”
The researchers note that coal-fired electricity generation is not the sole cause of India’s urban air pollution, and that industrial emissions also made an important contribution to worsening air pollution. According to the study’s models, by 2020 the power sector accounted for an estimated 36% of total urban airborne particle pollution, while industry accounted for about 32%. However, power-sector PM2.5 increased by around 400% between 2000 and 2020, compared with around 90% for industrial emissions.
The study ‘Economic boom-driven electricity demand linked to urban air pollution and health in India’ has been published in Nature Cities.
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