Expert Comment: Can 'middle powers' use international organisations to tackle today's crises?
Professor Ngaire Woods, founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Professor of Global Economic Governance, last week gave evidence to the International Relations and Defence Committee on the future of multilateralism and the UK's role. She argues that the UK must look beyond default alignment with the US, leveraging multilateral institutions and building coalitions to tackle global issues.
Across the United Nations and in nearly every international organisation there is intensifying competition between the world’s most powerful states as they vie for influence.
The United States and China are using three familiar levers. Firstly, they're seeking to influence the heads of organisation, to convince them to take certain actions. China, for example, has invested in securing leadership positions across UN agencies and other multilateral bodies. Funding is another tactic. Both the United States and China are refusing to pay dues to the United Nations as leverage to shape its behaviour. Thirdly, they're using coalition politics, attempting to corral countries into unconditionally supporting their own positions.
There is nothing new here - international organisations have always reflected geopolitical rivalries - but this does present a question for the United Kingdom on the possibilities for influence and the utility of multilateral institutions in advancing its interests.
“The UK is faced with some difficult choices. If it wishes to shape the next phase of global politics, it must deepen partnerships and invest more seriously in coalitions with middle powers and emerging economies.”
Beyond default alignment with the United States
The biggest challenge for the UK is that it has a habit of aligning with the United States in each international organisation. Yet America increasingly needs allies capable not merely of echoing their position but of moderating and restraining some of the more excessive impulses of contemporary politics. Alliances depend upon trusted partners who can broaden debate, build bridges and defend rules that benefit a range of countries, including the United States itself.
This fundamental truth means that the UK is faced with some difficult choices. If it wishes to shape the next phase of global politics, it must deepen partnerships and invest more seriously in coalitions with middle powers and emerging economies.
There are effective precedents of ‘demand driven’ alliances to learn from, as I noted in my recent piece for Foreign Affairs. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one such example which includes the major oil producers of Africa and the Middle East as well as Venezuela. OPEC has weathered defections, internal price wars and regular cheating on its quota limits to sustain high oil prices, generating more than a trillion dollars in gross revenue for its members and shaping global politics.
Coalitions for urgent crises
The UK, too, has opportunities to build agile coalitions and use international organisations as the world navigates three very urgent crises. The blockade in the Straits of Hormuz leaves us with declining stocks of aviation fuel and diesel on which economies depend; there is a growing threat of AI-driven cyber attacks which will have ripple effects across countries who are not the direct targets as critical infrastructure is suspended; and there is the Ebola outbreak beginning in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country which the United States has deemed a priority because of its cobalt reserves, essential to semiconductors and other critical industries.
These issues demand both new and old kinds of cooperation and international institutions have a role to play. Firstly, the UK should reflect on how it deploys international financial institutions to deal with the scale of this energy crisis, which is going to have consequences on the economies of all countries.
Secondly, the UK could use the G20 to reach out to other countries as part of the preparatory process with a keen focus on mutual partnerships, rather than “leading the world”. A strategic G20 expert group, for example around mitigating the effects of the next AI-driven cyber attack on critical infrastructure, would strengthen its usefulness on the global stage.
Finally, there may be an opportunity for the United States to begin re-engaging with the World Health Organisation, to contain the Ebola outbreak. If the UK can bring partners together around these vital issues, it will be seen as less of a sheep and more of a shepherd.
Refocusing international organisations for the future
Amidst these evolving crises, the role of international institutions could be sharpened. Given the squeeze on budgets since the 1980s, compounded by pressure from the US and China withholding funding in some cases, these organisations now carry out some activities which are beyond their unique role, for which donor governments are willing to pay.
This should prompt a more fundamental rethink about what international organisations are uniquely needed for, whether coordinating global crises, setting shared standards or mediating between states, and a renewed commitment to funding those functions properly, rather than relying on a piecemeal system shaped by the priorities of individual governments.
Effective leadership can also determine whether these institutions remain trustworthy and capable of responding to global crises. The key focus of countries is often installing their allies as organisation leaders, while far less attention is paid to how they are held to account once in post.
If the UK fails to have an active policy on multilateralism and use its diplomatic muscle to help build and reinforce coalitions which preserve its room for manoeuvre, then the international organisations that we've built could quickly become the footballs of China and the United States. This will reduce the UKs sovereignty and choices, as well as reducing the choices of other countries. Through defining distinctly which countries it wants to build partnerships with and why, and engaging thoughtfully with international institutions, it will better serve its citizens.
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