25-year Oxford study finds the effects of conflict last for generations

As conflicts continue to escalate in the Middle East and around the world – including rising tensions in northern Ethiopia – new evidence from the University of Oxford shows that, beyond the immediate devastation, the impact of war on young people can last for decades, affecting mental health, education, employment and even the next generation. 

Based at the University of Oxford, Young Lives is a unique longitudinal study of poverty and inequality. Since 2001, the Young Lives Study has followed the lives of 12,000 young people – from infancy to adulthood – in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. In Ethiopia, researchers have collected rare long-term data in the conflict-affected areas of Tigray and Amhara.

Dr Marta Favara, Director, Young Lives said, ‘When conflict broke out in northern Ethiopia in 2020, Young Lives was the only longitudinal study able to collect real-time data in the conflict-affected regions of Tigray and Amhara. Four years later, the study generated vital follow-up evidence revealing the devastating impacts of conflict on two generations of young people, many of whom were navigating critical life periods, such as moving from education to work, forming relationships, having children and setting up their own family homes. Based on this evidence, we can predict that this conflict will have a long-lasting effect across generations, as we have seen following the 1980–2000 Peruvian civil conflict.’

What conflict means for young people

Through in-person surveys and qualitative interviews – alongside an innovative phone survey conducted in 2021 and 2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of conflict in Ethiopia – as well as audio computer-assisted self-interviews (read more here: 'Caught in the Crossfire'), the Young Lives study has captured in-depth first-hand accounts and lived experiences, demonstrating how conflict affects nearly all aspects of young people’s lives: 

• Early marriage – Conflict and economic hardship are reshaping marriage practices, sometimes delaying marriage but also increasing early marriage in some areas, risking a reversal of recent declines. In Tigray, conflict has led some families to encourage early marriage or childbearing to offset lives lost during the war and to deter daughters from migrating.
• Maternal and child health – Damaged facilities, healthcare worker absences and financial constraints have led to a reduction in hospital deliveries, ambulance services and vaccinations.
• Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) – Services have been severely disrupted, limiting access to free contraceptives, implant removals and SRH education. Many young people have had to rely on expensive private clinics or go without altogether.
• Disabilities - War has increased disabilities through injuries and delayed medical treatment, compounded by additional economic pressures and long-term psychological trauma and emotional distress.
• Mental Health – Young people are reporting high levels of stress, anxiety and depression. In 2023-2024, 41% of participants from Tigray reported anxiety and 32% reported depression, while in Amhara, 32% reported anxiety and 19% reported depression. Young women face additional mental health issues due to excessive caregiving responsibilities and heightened risks of sexual violence. Psychological trauma continues long after the fighting ends, with high levels of reported post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms in conflict-affected areas.
• Food insecurity -  Although food insecurity has remained persistently high over the last decade, Ethiopia reported particularly alarming levels in 2023-24, with 74% of Young Lives households reporting they were either worried about running out of food or did not have enough food due to financial constraints. Food insecurity was especially acute during the conflict period and further exacerbated by severe drought in the southern regions and crippling inflation, particularly in urban areas
• Education – Prolonged conflict has severely disrupted schooling, undermining learning outcomes and reducing young people’s ability and motivation to continue their studies.
• Work and Employment – Destroyed livelihoods and increased youth unemployment have left young people who dropped out of school - and even university graduates - in poor-quality jobs that fail to match their skills and expectations.
• Migration – Conflict and the associated economic hardships and disruption of education have displaced many young people in search of safer environments. Young women, who typically migrate for domestic work in the Middle East, are particularly vulnerable to exploitation, sexual harassment and deception.

Conflict’s long shadow

Events in Ethiopia and the Middle East show how quickly conflict can destabilise communities, heighten anxiety, disrupt services and destroy infrastructure. Young Lives’ longitudinal evidence suggests that without coordinated action, the consequences of conflict can echo across generations. Furthermore, beyond the immediate social and economic costs, the study shows that conflict also leads to an erosion of trust – an essential foundation for peacebuilding, as well as post-conflict stabilisation and reconstruction.

A call for action

Young Lives’ Qual 6 policy brief presents emerging recommendations based on our findings and calls for government ministries and agencies, donors, international organisations, local NGOs and community groups to:

• restore disrupted reproductive, maternal and child health services;
• expand mental health care to help address widespread psychological trauma;
• ensure targeted support to people with disabilities who are often disproportionately affected by disrupted services;
• support young people to return to education;
• create economic opportunities and expand access to decent work;
• mitigate increasing migration driven by insecure livelihoods and a growing sense of hopelessness among young people.

Kath Ford, Deputy Director, Young Lives, said, ‘Conflict in northern Ethiopia has profoundly disrupted the lives of young people, with lasting repercussions for livelihoods and the well-being of the next generation. For example, malnutrition experienced during infancy and early childhood – which can be driven by food insecurity in times of conflict – can have serious long-term consequences, negatively affecting physical growth, cognitive and socio-emotional skills, educational outcomes and later employability.’