Expert Comment: Could oil price surge accelerate the UK’s shift to renewables?

Dr Laurence Wainwright

The opening months of 2026 have been characterised by unprecedented levels of geo-political-economic turbulence, uncertainty and volatility. The launch of “Operation Epic Fury” on 28 February has had, and will continue to have, profound implications for global energy availability, cost, and security - as well as significant broader economic implications. 

For the United Kingdom, the crisis represents an acute threat to an already stuttering and fragile economy. A rise in energy costs adds to the growing list of interrelated challenges facing the country, which include significant low productivity, a heavily constrained national budget, record taxation rates, and a seemingly omnipresent cost of living crisis.

The conflict has also served to reignite the row over North Sea drilling. Proponents argue that the UK should utilise its vast reserves and it is necessary for domestic survival. 

Simultaneously, the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade has said that "doubling down on renewables" represents the most prudent way forward to protect against such a shock from ever impacting the UK again. 

Research from the Oxford Smith School supports this. Our work has shown that ‘solving’ the elusive wicked problem of the energy trilemma - affordability, security/independence, and environmental sustainability - can only be attained through countries completely weaning off fossil fuels. In the immediate term however, there is little the Government can do, and already stretched low- and middle-income earners will take a significant hit. Given the Government’s current economic woes and record national debt, Whitehall has only limited options to assist the public with energy prices. 

This energy shock, although painful, may serve as the tipping point that dramatically increases the pace of global adoption of renewables. History has shown us - perhaps sadly - that it is often the case that sticks, rather than carrots, are what cause humans to change their ways. The current situation may serve as just that stick.

Professor Cameron Hepburn

The surge in oil prices past $110 a barrel following the Iran conflict is the most significant energy shock since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the echoes of 1973 are hard to ignore — petrol station queues are already forming across the UK  and the government has had to reassure the public there is no fuel shortage - which there isn't.

Drivers will feel the impact at the pump within ten to fourteen days, but the 1.5 million households reliant on heating oil are being hit right now, with costs jumping by hundreds of pounds in a matter of days.

For the roughly 33 million households on standard energy tariffs, the Ofgem price cap shields them until July, but wholesale gas prices have already surged and that protection simply delays the pain by a few months.

It might seem really worrying that the UK's gas storage currently holds barely a day and a half of supply — down from twelve days a few years ago.  Actually, though, we currently have reliable supplies through Norwegian pipelines, even if we are now paying the highest wholesale gas prices in Europe for the privilege.

Unlike 1973, we now have a partial insurance policy: wind and solar generate roughly a third of our electricity and are completely insulated from events in the Gulf. The tragedy is that consumers don't yet benefit from that cheap homegrown power, because our electricity market still prices all power off the most expensive gas plant running at any given moment — meaning even EV drivers will end up being partly hit by a fossil fuel shock that moves into higher power prices.

Every pound invested in renewables, insulation grid infrastructure and other clean technologies permanently reduces our exposure to exactly this kind of geopolitical crisis. The energy transition is no longer just climate policy — it is the most credible energy security strategy the UK has.

Dr Anupama Sen

In 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a Smith School analysis found that had the UK moved away from importing Russian oil and gas after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, it would have saved ~£22 bn.

The evolving 2026 energy crisis simply reiterates this argument – if we were less reliant on oil and gas today, we would be in a much better economic position.

In the longer-term, the best way to keep energy bills low for UK households would be to expand our portfolio of generation options: renewables and batteries can go a long way in shielding electricity prices form geopolitical energy shocks. Alongside this, the UK should continue its focus on electrifying heating and insulating homes, as focusing on reducing exposure to gas volatility will keep bills down even when prices spike, as households will need less of it to stay warm and secure. 

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