Life in a violent country can be years shorter and much less predictable – even for those not involved in conflict.

According to the research, violent deaths are responsible for a high proportion of the differences in lifetime uncertainty between violent and peaceful countries. But, the study says, ‘The impact of violence on mortality goes beyond cutting lives short. When lives are routinely lost to violence, those left behind face uncertainty as to who will be next.’

Lead author Dr José Manuel Aburto from the Leverhulme Centre of Demographic Science and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, adds, ‘What we found most striking is that lifetime uncertainty has a greater association with violence than life expectancy. Lifetime uncertainty, therefore, should not be overlooked when analysing changes in mortality patterns.’

What we found most striking is that lifetime uncertainty has a greater association with violence than life expectancy

Dr José Manuel Aburto

Using mortality data from 162 countries, and the Internal Peace Index between 2008-2017, the study shows the most violent countries are also those with the highest lifetime uncertainty. In the Middle East, conflict-related deaths at young ages are the biggest contributor to this, while in Latin America a similar pattern results from homicides and interpersonal violence.

But lifetime uncertainty was ‘remarkably low’ between 2008-2017, in most northern and southern European countries. Although Europe has been the most peaceful region over the period, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will impact this.

In high-income countries, reduced cancer mortality has recently helped to reduce lifetime uncertainty. But, in the most violent societies, lifetime uncertainty is even experienced by those not directly involved in violence. The report states, ‘Poverty-insecurity-violence cycles magnify pre-existing structural patterns of disadvantage for women and fundamental imbalances in gender relations at young ages. In some Latin American countries, female homicides have increased over the last decades and exposure to violent environments brings health and social burdens, particularly for children and women.’

Global violence is a public health crisis, with tremendous implications for population health

Dr Vanessa di Lego

Leverhulme Centre study co-author Professor Ridhi Kashyap says, ‘Whilst men are the major direct victim

Study figure: Predicted lifetime uncertainty by sex, ranked from highest to lowest lifetime uncertainty across the most violent and peaceful countries.

According to the report, lower life expectancy is usually associated with greater lifetime uncertainty. In addition, living in a violent society creates vulnerability and uncertainty – and that, in turn, can lead to more violent behaviour. 

Countries with high levels of violence experience lower levels of life expectancy than more peaceful ones, ‘We estimate a gap of around 14 years in remaining life expectancy at age 10 between the least and most violent countries…In El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Colombia the gap in life expectancy with high income countries is predominantly explained by excess mortality due to homicides.’

Study co-author Dr Vanessa di Lego, from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, adds, ‘It is striking how violence alone is a major driver of disparities in lifetime uncertainty. One thing is for certain, global violence is a public health crisis, with tremendous implications for population health, and should not be taken lightly.’