24 February 2021
More than three quarters of people in the UK now say they are ’very likely’ to have the vaccine – up from 50% among the same group of survey respondents five months ago –according to a two-wave Oxford University survey.
Age remains a strong predictor of willingness to take the vaccine and the Oxford study shows increased willingness among all adults, the 50-59 group in particular has become much more positive about the vaccine since October.
Despite this steep shift in public opinion, however, Oxford researchers found important gaps remain, driven by income, political values and ethnicity. The survey of 1,200 UK residents, contacted in early October 2020 and again in the first week of February 2021, revealed strong relationships between political attitudes and the intention to accept the vaccine. The survey found:
- People on lower incomes are, on average, much less willing to take the vaccine. Going against the broad trend towards vaccine uptake, this gap has widened somewhat since October.
- Whether you voted for Brexit appears related to vaccine acceptance. The study found ‘Remainers’ are 7% points more likely willing to take the vaccine than ‘Leavers’ or those who did not vote in the 2016 referendum.
- People who voted Brexit party or Green in 2019 – and especially those who did not vote at all - are the least willing to take the vaccine, with SNP and Liberal voters most positively inclined.
- Supporters of Nigel Farage’s new Reform UK party are the most hesitant, with just over 50% saying they will take the vaccine, compared to 100% of SNP voters.
- The opinion of ethnic minority participants has edged slightly in favour of the vaccine, but still trails the white population.
- There is no evidence that noting the UK’s leading role in approving or developing the vaccine affects willingness to take it.
- Respondents were broadly supportive of the government’s performance in rolling out the vaccine and in who received priority for the vaccine but showed greater concerns about the policy of delaying the second dose of the vaccine.
Ben Ansell, Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the Department of Politics and International Relations, says, ‘This multi-wave study gives us a rare glimpse of whose opinions have shifted and why. People have become massively more supportive of taking the vaccine overall but important gaps remain especially among groups whose trust in politicians is typically lower: non-voters, younger citizens, and poorer households.’
‘When so much of the UK Government’s lockdown exit strategy rests on successful vaccine roll out, these insights will be of immediate importance to policymakers in both their internal deliberation on policy and their outward facing communication with the public.’
Notes for Editors
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The study, part of the University of Oxford funded research project ‘Coping with COVID-19’, was conducted on a representative sample of over 1,600 UK mainland adults using the polling company YouGov. Over 1,200 respondents responded to both the October and February surveys. The study was co-authored by scholars from the University of Oxford, London School of Economics, and University College London.
The Coping with COVID-19 project aims to discover what factors affect trust in the government's coronavirus strategy.
Full Report, with data and graphs:
Ansell, B., Bauer, M.W., Gingrich, J. and Stilgoe, J. Coping With Covid: Two-Wave Survey
The Department of Politics and International Relations (https://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/) at the University Oxford is one of the largest units for research and teaching in international relations, politics, government and political theory. Our work is directed to advance these disciplines. We create theoretical frameworks for the analysis of new objects of study using advanced research methods and we develop techniques for gathering, handling, processing and analysing data.
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