Globalisation, global change and emerging infectious diseases

In this Pandemic Sciences Institute & Oxford Martin School talk, Professor Drake will trace the historical record of major 20th and 21st Century pandemics, highlighting how global forces such as economic integration, urbanisation and climate disruption shape the emergence and spread of novel pathogens.

Emerging infectious diseases are not random shocks to human societies, but recurrent features of a world increasingly shaped by globalisation and global change. Over the past century, pandemics such as influenza, HIV/AIDS, Ebola and COVID-19 have revealed how economic integration, rapid urbanization, climate disruption and ecological transformation create structural conditions for novel pathogens to appear and spread.

This lecture traces the historical record of major 20th and 21st century pandemics to document not just the immediate health impacts of emerging diseases but also their social and economic consequences. Building on this evidence, Professor Drake will introduce the 'globalization grid', a framework that maps the flows of goods and services, capital, people and ideas across political, economic and cultural domains. This perspective highlights the multiple, interacting pathways through which globalisation influences disease emergence, from deforestation and agricultural intensification to global supply chains, labour mobility and international governance.

By situating pandemics within these broader systemic processes, we can better understand why certain pathogens achieve global reach and why their impacts are so unevenly distributed. The challenge for the future is to design institutions and interventions that anticipate these dynamics, strengthening resilience before the next pandemic emerges.