Data-driven agent-based modeling of the Hungarian housing market - András Borsos

András Borsos (Central Bank of Hungary)
Event date
Event time
Institute for New Economic Thinking (and Online)
Manor Road Building
Manor Road
Venue details

Seminar Room G and online

Event type
Lectures and seminars
Event cost
Disabled access?
Booking required

The Central Bank of Hungary developed a complex, modular, 1:1 scale, agent-based model of the Hungarian residential housing market, where all the 4 million households and their relevant characteristics are represented based on empirical micro‐level data. The model features transactions in the housing and rental markets, a construction sector, buy‐to‐let investors, housing loans, house price dynamics and a procyclical banking sector regulated by a macroprudential authority. After a brief elaboration of the features of this model, the talk will cover four applications:

  • Optimal choice of scaling in economic agent-based models: trade-offs between runtime, accuracy, and precision;
  • Comprehensive evaluation of borrower-based macroprudential policies;
  • Evaluation of demand- and supply-side policy schemes supporting first-time home buyers;
  • Interactions between the housing market and the macroeconomic environment using a SVAR extension of the ABM framework.