2022 Haldane Lecture, Wolfson College

The role of science in national and international emergencies

Predicting, preventing and responding to major emergencies requires a strong scientific basis in addition to well executed operational capacity. Emergencies are the time governments and agencies most predictably turn to scientific advice, and a well executed operational response to an emergency will fail if is it based on incorrect technical understanding. This is particularly the case of natural emergencies including physical (earthquakes, tsunamis), metrological (floods, storms and droughts) and infectious epidemics. Science advice in emergencies generally has to operate in a framework of considerable uncertainty. This lecture will consider different types of emergency, and the scientific underpinnings of a response including examples of different types of emergency from the last two decades.