Investigating conflict in developing countries

CRISE works with partner institutions in three regions of the world: West Africa (investigating Nigeria, Ghana and the Côte d’Ivoire), Latin America (Peru, Bolivia and Guatemala) and South East Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia). Focusing research on these eight countries, all with multiethnic populations, yet with widely differing experience of political stability and conflict reveals that a particular, potent mix of ingredients can cause certain ethnic or religious tensions to boil over in some countries and not in others. Knowing what those ingredients are, and what can be changed to remove that risk, is a valuable tool.

Professor Frances Stewart, Director of CRISE, has devised a concept, which she calls ‘horizontal inequalities’ to describe the economic, social and political differences between groups perceived as culturally distinct. The role of ethnic tensions is widely recognised in the reporting of wars, but with the concept of horizontal inequalities CRISE has given development workers and researchers a new framework to analyse differences and make comparisons. 

Ian Bannon, Manager of the Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit of the World Bank, says other researchers had looked at the income of individuals in societies but the results were ‘puzzling and controversial’ and not a good predictor of violence in society. ‘The insight from the CRISE work was that we were measuring the wrong thing,’ he says. He explains that CRISE provided ‘an important insight... the need to look at the situation of different groups in society.’ 

CRISE is exploring, for example, why different ethnic groups in Ghana and Nigeria now live in relative peace, but neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire is experiencing civil war. The research suggests that politics is key: in Nigeria, although the north is much poorer than the south, conflict was avoided because northerners mostly dominated the political process. By comparison, Côte d’Ivoire enjoyed a period of stability under a very inclusive government led by Félix Houphouët-Boigny, but when that rule ended, northerners were thrown out of government and violence ensued.

This example illustrates a crucial finding of CRISE research: if countries have sharp social and economic inequalities, but no political inequalities, the population may find the situation tolerable. But if political inequality is also present, you have a potential tinderbox – particularly if an ethnic or religious group experiences or perceives a lack of cultural status and recognition within its own country.

Professor Stewart says sometimes even the academic collaborators in partner institutions have to be convinced there is a problem. ‘Peru is an interesting country; our partners more or less denied there was a problem of racism between indigenous and non-indigenous people, and yet over time they have become more convinced of the importance of the issue.’

The CRISE research centre, which is supported by the UK government’s Department for International Development (DFID), has changed the roadmap for peace: ‘horizontal inequalities’ are now understood and used by DFID, the United Nations, OECD and the World Bank in their reports and policy papers. DFID, for example, says CRISE has provided ‘a strong evidence base’ for its policy paper on social exclusion and its country programme in Nepal, and John Ohiorhenuan, a Senior Deputy Director of the UN Development Programme, says CRISE is ‘helping to shape the analytical foci and key messages’ of the UN’s forthcoming report on post-conflict economic recovery.