Features

An OxSTaR simulation on Cardiothoracic Critical Care

The Oxford Simulation, Teaching and Research team (OxSTaR) team have been pioneering the use of simulation-based education (SBE) at Oxford University for over 15 years. Part of the Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, they have grown from two to fourteen members, and the extended team now numbers over 50 from a diverse range of backgrounds. Based at the John Radcliffe Hospital, the OxSTaR Centre provides a psychologically safe learning environment for medical students and multidisciplinary healthcare professionals. 

OxSTaR's work has been recognised by an AdvanceHE Collaborative Award for Teaching Excellence (CATE), which celebrates outstanding collaborative impact on teaching and learning and highlights the key role of teamwork in higher education.   Meet some of the members of Oxford's OXSTaR team below and find out more about their work here.

Helen Higham, OxSTaR Director 

Helen Higham, OxSTaR Director Helen Higham, OxSTaR Director
Helen is an Associate Professor in the Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, a Consultant Anaesthetist in the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, and Associate Dean for Simulation and Patient Safety in Thames Valley. She has always had a keen interest in medical education and has been the Director of OxSTaR since it opened in 2008. Her joint appointments in the University, Trust and Deanery have facilitated the development of strong working relationships across these organisations, leading to innovative educational programmes to support the development of students and healthcare professionals for the benefit of patients in Oxford and more widely. 

I believe our success as a team has come about because of our common sense of purpose, mutual support, and joy at work – there is a lot of laughter in OxSTaR. It was this team ethos that enabled us to step up to the immense challenges of the pandemic and successfully negotiate those extraordinary times together. We continued teaching and delivered freely accessible educational materials to healthcare students and workers globally to disseminate new skills vital to staff and patient safety during COVID-19. 

Our aim now is to build on the successes of the past 15 years, continue to expand our work using novel learning technologies and drive the research in clinical education and patient safety. I could not be more proud to work with this wonderful team and I’m very much looking forward to what’s coming next. 

Rosie Warren, OxSTaR Manager 

Rosie Warren, OxSTaR ManagerRosie Warren, OxSTaR Manager
Rosie has been OxSTaR’s Manager since 2012 and is an ICU nurse by background. She has been integral in the centre’s success through her passion for multidisciplinary education, her collaborative mentality, and her focus on providing development opportunities for the whole team. She is currently completing her Masters in Patient Safety, with plans to support the expansion of the centre’s teaching and research in Human Factors and Patient Safety. 

I started in OxSTaR as a simulation fellow in 2012 and haven’t left! I’ve worked in many teams both in the NHS and the military, and this team is special because we have a cohesiveness and appreciation of each other’s strengths and capabilities which means we always get a bigger and better result than might otherwise be expected. 

Wendy Washbourn, OxSTaR Administrator 

Wendy Washbourn, OxSTaR AdministratorWendy Washbourn, OxSTaR Administrator
Wendy is OxSTaR’s Administrator and the welcoming face of the centre. She began work as a course administrator but has developed the role into one with many more pro-active and wide-reaching responsibilities. Her infectious positivity has a huge impact on team morale, which was particularly important during the pandemic. 

When I first started in the team I was mainly involved in welcoming people on our courses and sending out certificates, but Helen and Rosie encouraged me to get involved in more of what we do, and I’m now helping to run a leadership programme in the hospital and running international meetings. It’s such an exciting role and I’ve been really surprised by what I’m capable of. 

Alan Inglis, Head Technician 

Alan Inglis, Head TechnicianAlan Inglis, Head Technician
Alan is OxSTaR’s Head Technician and brought a wealth of clinical experience from his nursing background, as well as technical expertise through leading IT projects in healthcare, when he joined the team in 2012. Technical support is absolutely vital for the delivery of educational programmes incorporating simulation and novel learning technologies (such as virtual and augmented reality). Alan leads a team of technicians in the centre who do so much more than the name suggests, ensuring that OxSTaR receives consistently outstanding feedback for its work. 

I think most of what the tech team does in a simulation centre is hidden, and actually it’s a mark of our success when teaching runs smoothly, either in person or online, and our students don’t notice we’re there. When I began this role simulation was relatively new in healthcare and I’ve seen enormous changes in what we can offer in terms of simulating real experiences for students and healthcare professionals, and making a real difference to practice and patient care. The thing that stands out about our team is collaborative approach to what we do – everyone’s expertise and viewpoint is respected, and that makes an enormous difference to the quality of our teaching. 

Hilary Edgcombe, Head of the Global Anaesthesia Team 

Hilary Edgcombe, Head of the Global Anaesthesia Team Hilary Edgcombe, Head of the Global Anaesthesia Team
Hilary is an NHS consultant in the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, with roles in education and simulation. Throughout her training and consultant career Hilary has maintained a strong interest in the provision of safe anaesthesia in low-income settings, with commitments to clinical, training and research projects in sub-Saharan Africa. She is also a founding and active member of the Oxford Global Surgery Group which links clinicians and researchers in Oxford who have global surgical health interests, and offers a global surgery special study module for medical students and an internationally popular short course in global surgery for anaesthetists, obstetricians and surgeons held annually.

'I think the team in OxSTaR is unique because of the pervasive atmosphere of encouragement to develop ideas from all team members and the pro-active mentoring and supporting of others with burgeoning interests inside and outside the team. The global reach the team has achieved is in large part because it is “business as usual” to share perspectives on new ideas and projects in progress. Support within and outside the core team enables us to go above and beyond in commitment to our goals and cross-disciplinary and cross-cultural perspectives enhance our reach and impact by ensuring feasible and context-relevant approaches.'

Laura Vincent, Head of Intensive Care Simulation and Human Factors 

Laura Vincent, Head of Intensive Care Simulation and Human FactorsLaura Vincent, Head of Intensive Care Simulation and Human Factors
Laura has been a part of the team in OxSTaR since she did her Education Fellowship in 2016. She is now a Consultant in Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine and leads simulation-based education in the Oxford Critical Care Unit. Despite being a frontline clinician throughout the pandemic, she was able to focus on supporting healthcare teams in delivering safer care through designing team training which gave multidisciplinary staff confidence in dealing with the extraordinary circumstances and changes in practice that evolved during the pandemic.  

Laura sits across both the Clinical Governance and Education teams in critical care, and through her OxSTaR role delivers human factors and patient safety training across specialties and professional groups throughout Oxford University Hospitals. 

I’m absolutely passionate about high quality education that has a meaningful impact on quality of care, patient safety, staff confidence and staff wellbeing – simulation-based education ticks all these boxes, and never more obviously than during the pandemic. OxSTaR is like an extended family, that I am so proud and thankful to be part of – a high functioning, close-knit and constant team of pluripotent individuals. They have supported me throughout my development as a human factors and simulation specialist and continue to allow me to develop my education career both academically and practically as a Consultant in Intensive Care. When clinical work is challenging, a day spent with the OxSTaR team is rejuvenating and inspiring. I am excited about the endless opportunities ahead for OxSTaR as we develop both our teaching and research capacity. 

Sally Shiels, Head of Virtual Reality Simulation 

Sally Shiels, Head of Virtual Reality SimulationSally Shiels, Head of Virtual Reality Simulation
Sally has been a part of the OxSTaR team since she undertook her Education Fellowship in 2018. She leads the award-winning Virtual Reality Group in the centre and is passionate about providing high quality education for our students, including incorporating novel technologies where they make a real difference. She is a Consultant in Obstetric Anaesthesia at the OUHT and has been teaching using innovative appreciative inquiry techniques both before and during the pandemic, when it was even more important to celebrate and learn from achievements in dynamic and stressful work environments. 

I feel I’ve evolved enormously as an educator through my time working in OxSTaR. In part because the team ethos is so collaborative and supportive, but also because I’ve been given the freedom to drive the projects in virtual reality and appreciative inquiry independently. I’ve been able to build a team that is doing extremely exciting work in this area for the benefit of students and staff in healthcare, and, most importantly, our patients. 

Poet Lemn Sissay
  • ‘Dragons Den’? More than 80 social science researchers deliver ‘amazing’ ideas

  • Four ‘exciting’ projects chosen to be turned into short films

Seven months ago, Social Sciences Division put out a call to its academics: would you like to make a short film based on your research, in collaboration with BBC Ideas? Who wouldn’t?

Six weeks later, not surprisingly, some 80 amazing ideas for filming were delivered, covering the full range of the division’s research. And somehow the BBC and the division had to whittle those down to just four ideas, which could be distilled into five-minute films or animations, explaining the research and being entertaining for an under 35s audience.

BBC Ideas BBC Ideas
It was an extremely tough call. According to Bethan Jinkinson, the BBC Ideas Executive editor behind the films, ‘We’ve never done anything quite like this before. It was wonderful to hear from so many different academics about so many amazing ideas and such a wide range of projects. The standard was very high.’

She explained how BBC Ideas works, ‘These are short films aimed at an under 35s audience…they need academic rigour, insight and facts but also need to be effortlessly entertaining.’

Sam Sneddon, Head of Research, Impact & Engagement in the Social Sciences Division, said, ‘We are very excited about this partnership with BBC Ideas – the first of its type for Oxford – because it is a huge opportunity to engage new audiences with social sciences research.

‘We hope that these short films and animations will inspire watchers to explore new ideas and perspectives, and find out more about Oxford’s excellent academic research in the social sciences and beyond.’

 The four projects chosen were:

Why do some children beat the odds? a captivating film based on the Young Lives project’s idea about how children in some of the poorest countries on Earth have beaten the odds to improve their lives.

How the humble bean can help the world, a clever, entertaining animation based on an idea from TABLE, the future of food platform, about how the humble bean is the answer to everything…and not.

Five things you probably didn’t know about periods, an amazing and incredibly interesting film, led by doctoral candidate Gabriella Kountourides based on her research on menstruation.

How to keep cool (without heating the planet). As the world warms and heatwaves become more frequent, we turn up the Air Conditioning. But that contributes to climate change. This fascinating animation looks at the air-con conundrum. 

Bethan explained, ‘Turning what are quite intellectually demanding concepts into five minutes of film, that a wide audience will enjoy, is often a challenge.’

But she added, ‘It was great to work with a new partner, and exciting to be working on social science topics.

‘These films showcase the variety of connections to the real world in social sciences.

‘It’s been privilege to work with the academics and to discover new ideas and fresh perspectives.’

BBC Ideas was launched in 2018 and has published over 750 short films. They are available on numerous channels, from the BBC Ideas website (bbc.co.uk) as well as YouTube and Twitter. Films are promoted on the BBC News website and Homepage, as well as the main BBC Facebook, Instagram and Tik Tok accounts.

One of the most popular BBC Ideas films on YouTube is about being an introvert in an extrovert world, and has had over 5.7 million views. Another very popular film on YouTube is about the man who invented algorithms – with over two million views.

Bethan concluded, ‘We are really pleased with the final films. The animators and production companies we’ve worked with have done a brilliant job, they are so creative and brilliant. We’re really excited to share them with the audience.’

The Films

Why do some children beat the odds?

Young Lives has followed the fortunes of some 12,000 children in four developing nations for the last 20+ years. And the team behind the long-running survey knew they had an idea which would relate to many young people: beating the odds.

The BBC matched the idea with the poet Lemn Sissay, who told his compelling personal story of triumph over adversity – based around three factors identified in Young Lives’ research. Young Lives has looked at how the young people it has followed overcome crises and difficult lives – more information can be seen on the website here.

Julia Tilford, Communications Manager, said, ‘We were thrilled to have the opportunity to bring this positive story to young audiences – particularly when there are so many crises in the world.’

Dr Cath Porter, the project’s Director, added, ‘We were very excited to be chosen and to work with BBC Ideas and Lemn Sissay, whose own inspiring story brings our research to life.’

How the humble bean can help the world

TABLE works with food system stakeholders to explore the future of food, and the ways in which scientific evidence and social values inform often conflicting visions and arguments for necessary change. So, the idea of making a film about the humble bean, and whether it is the answer to everything, was very much in the team’s wheelhouse.

Jackie Turner, who worked closely with the BBC on the film, said, ‘We pitched a few ideas, but in the end, beans turned out to be a great topic choice because they join up so many different strands of conversation in food systems - they're in the middle of so many different proposed solutions.’

Tamsin Blaxter, member of the TABLE team, said, 'Our usual audiences are people working in food production or on food policy, but the reality is that everyone is a stakeholder in the food system. Everyone can exert some power through what they choose to eat, how they choose to vote, and what they choose to support - and everyone stands to benefit from healthier and more sustainable food.'

TABLE director Dr Tara Garnett explained, ‘It was something of a joke: beans are the answer to everything. It was flippant but not really. Beans are great – they’re good for health and the environment. We will all be eating beans for dinner after this.’

But she added seriously, ‘Nothing can ever be the answer to everything and that’s a really important message about the food system.’

The TABLE team members emphasised how pleased they all are with the film and the potential for reaching a wide audience.

Five things you probably didn’t know about periods

 

Rarely discussed but experienced by about 50% of the world’s population, menstruation is fascinating to Anthropology doctoral student Gabriella Kountourides.

Her film busts five myths about periods – including the idea that periods are somehow linked to lunar cycles (they’re not) and that women’s periods synchronize if they live together (they don’t) Gabriella also explores old myths – such as the Ancient Greek idea that wombs float around the body (obviously they do not).

In what is likely to be a very popular film, the irrepressible Gabriella concluded, ‘There’s so much unknown about something that happens to half of the world’s population at some point in their life.’

How to keep cool (without heating the planet)
 
 

As temperatures go up, the cost of power should go down...right? Wrong. Potentially, the cost of cooling - and the emissions created - will add to global warming, in an ever expanding feedback loop. In this powerful short film, based on the research of Dr Radhika Khosla and the Oxford Martin School Programme on the Future of Cooling, the problems of keeping cool are explained. The research team said, 'The BBC Ideas team worked closely with us on the script and animation to make sure it was as true to the research as possible while also being easy to understand.

'Our hope is that it informs a new audience about sustainable cooling and sparks their curiosity. Above all, we want people to know that while the challenges presented by climate change are enormous, there are some solutions we can start implementing right away.'

The AC might be effective at cooling the room, but they are power hungry appliances. A small unit in a single room uses more electricity than four fridges.  

A computer dashboard with illuminated buttons including the words ‘COVID-19’ and a world map.

We might want to firmly forget the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is almost inevitable that the future will see new disease outbreaks. How successfully we meet these will depend on whether we can learn from the impacts the coronavirus had, at the health, political, economic, and social level. Countries around the world adopted markedly different approaches to tackling the pandemic – but which were the most effective? And how did this depend on each country’s unique combination of demographics, political institutions, social structures, and health systems?

Portrait style photographs of Anna Petherick and Thomas Hale.Associate Professor Anna Petherick (top) and Professor Thomas Hale (bottom).
Answering these questions would be impossible without an accurate record of what happened and when. Thanks to researchers from Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government, the world has a powerful tool to assess COVID-19 related polices: the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. This global dataset, launched just days after the World Health Organization (WHO) began describing COVID-19 as a pandemic, captures in real-time all the COVID-19 regulations introduced throughout the pandemic.

The measures are coded according to their theme – for instance, workplace closures or controls on international travel – but they can also be combined into an aggregate score that gives an overall measure of the strictness of each nation’s response to the pandemic. The resource also includes an archive with the original source materials for each policy.

‘Whilst the Tracker itself does not aim to measure the appropriateness or effectiveness of a country’s reaction, it offers a way to compare responses and learn from one another’ said project PI Thomas Hale, Professor of Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government. ‘This granular approach, which allows us to look at measures in aggregate, gives a sense of how “open” or “closed” nations became, which is more helpful than generic labels like “lockdown”, whose meaning can vary across different contexts.’

Covering 187 countries and over 200 subnational jurisdictions, the database is astonishingly comprehensive, with just under 9 million data points. But the story behind it is just as remarkable. As project co-lead Anna Petherick, Associate Professor in Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, said, ‘What started as just a small team of us entering data into spreadsheets rapidly snowballed into a global effort that quickly became a “go-to” source of information for world leaders, policy makers, and the media.’ 

Incredibly, the dataset was compiled almost entirely by volunteers; a diverse, international community of over 1500 people, from undergraduate students to software developers. During the height of the pandemic, their combined efforts influenced high-level policy papers, featured in global media coverage, and ultimately informed the decisions that governments, international organisations, and public health agencies took on their COVID-19 strategies.

But as Anna explained, it all began with a Blavatnik School class back in March 2020.

An introduction to the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker 

The germ of an idea

‘Those weeks leading up to the first lockdown were filled with so much uncertainty, and all of us – staff and students – were finding it difficult to focus on anything. It was clear that COVID-19 was developing into a situation of unprecedented scale, but just how big the pandemic would become and how long it would last were completely unknown’, Anna said. Whilst teaching a class as part of the Blavatnik School’s Master of Public Policy course, the team realized that the cohort of students in the room represented around 50 different countries. ‘Very pragmatically, we already had a diverse community capable of reading a large proportion of the official updates released by governments across the world.’ This gave Thomas the idea for a global COVID-19 policy tracker, and he asked for my help to get it off the ground.’ The proposal was that the tracker would record policy changes continuously to provide the most up-to-date comparative tool possible.

The impact of the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker has been nothing short of extraordinary. It has been used by governments all around the world, the UN, the WHO, and hundreds of news articles in dozens of different languages. That really is quite an extraordinary impact in such a short period of time, and none of that would have been possible without the extraordinary contributions of the volunteers.

Professor Irene Tracey, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Oxford

Thomas and Anna launched the Tracker on 22 March 2020, the day before the UK first went into lockdown. Around 30 students from the Blavatnik School and other parts of the University immediately volunteered to track policy updates, enter and code the data, and act as reviewers. Their contribution was invaluable since these tasks were not possible to automate, due to the data collection relying on a wide variety of publicly-available information sources, from government statements and news reports to social media accounts. The team initially recorded information on 11 different areas, including school closures, public events cancellations, and public information campaigns, besides monetary measures and emergency investment in healthcare. (This ultimately expanded to 23 indicators, including vaccine policies).

‘At the time, there was a lot of anxiety among our students about what would happen to their exams, so the Tracker gave them something to focus their minds on, and a sense of agency that they were contributing something towards softening and eventually overcoming the pandemic’, said Anna.

A simulation of data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, produced by Our World in Data. This is an example of the variation in governments’ responses to COVID-19 across the world on Friday 30 April 2021. Credit: Our World in Data.

Scaling up

Despite the students’ enthusiasm, the sheer volume of data flowing in meant the project quickly required more people power. ‘The first few months were exhausting, and I was working late into the evening most days and weekends too’, said Anna. ‘We felt an enormous sense of responsibility, and a sense that we had to get this right to meet people’s needs.’

One key challenge was designing a framework that could capture and compare all the different kinds of policies governments were adopting. While many governments did similar things, nuance and context were very important, creating difficult choices and trade-offs for the team. ‘Since day one we have been building the airplane as we fly it,’ Thomas said.

Another major hurdle was developing a database that could handle complex data and adapt over time, whilst remaining easy for volunteers from around the world to use. Fortunately, Thomas’s partner Dr Sam Webster, a financial risk manager with experience in handling large data sets, was able to build the basic system in one marathon weekend.

But the biggest need was getting a critical mass of volunteers from around the world. Reaching out to Oxford University’s alumni community, they received an ‘overwhelming response’, with many signing up to volunteer and help raise awareness of the project.

‘Suddenly word was getting out here, there, and everywhere’, said Anna. ‘As one example, a medical student at The Federal University of Pará in Belém, Brazil, heard about it somehow and recruited, at that stage, a large proportion of our entire Brazil sub-national team.’ Even major corporations lent their support. On hearing that the Tracker was built using their software, Microsoft encouraged their staff to volunteer, which led to a sudden surge in sign-ups.

Portrait photograph of Andrew Read Andrew Read
Andrew Read, a digital strategist for Microsoft based in Switzerland at the time, was one of those who responded.

He said:

‘I saw it as an opportunity to do something practical to help even though restricted to working from home. I also found it fascinating to learn how other countries were reacting to COVID-19. I researched and reported on various countries across Europe and Africa, and it was an interesting challenge to track down suitable sources of information, and one I definitely got better at over time.’

Though launched with a budget of zero, the project came to attract financial backing, including newly-launched grants for COVID-19 response projects. ‘This gave us the resource to scale up massively and invest in more support for our volunteers’, said Anna. ‘We hired several research assistants who helped us to develop training modules, run the weekly online check-in meetings, and monitor the vast number of emails and questions.’

These actions enable the volunteer base to swell even further, stretching across the globe. Many saw it as a way to help fight back against COVID-19 at a time when so many of their usual activities were disrupted.  

 Some of the 1500 volunteers who powered the Blavatnik School’s COVID-19 Response Tracker talk about their experiences creating the most-cited dataset of pandemic policy decisions in the world. 


A portrait image of Precious OlajidePrecious Olajide
Volunteer Precious Olajide, an undergraduate student studying psychology at Obafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria, recalled:

‘I volunteered for the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project because I saw it as an opportunity to be involved with something bigger than myself, and to contribute to a project that had a global influence. The community of volunteers was like another family for me; we were interacting all the time with emails and WhatsApp. It was my first involvement in a research project and because the organising team were so supportive, I enjoyed it a lot.’

A global influence

Despite the enormous scale of the dataset, from the beginning it was designed to be accessible and easy for anyone to understand. The entire dataset was made available as an open-access GitHub repository, so that, as Anna said: ‘anyone could download and use the data, whether they were a journalists, policy makers, or even school pupils and teachers.’ Because of this, the dataset soon gained international attention from governments, researchers, journalists, and NGOs around the world.

‘One day in about late March 2020 I made some very basic bar charts comparing the policies of countries according to their income level’, Anna recalled. ‘Suddenly I learnt that they had been sent to the UN Secretary General. Something I had very quickly created on my laptop at home was now being used by policy makers at the highest level.’

Over the next two years, the dataset became a critical tool for decision-makers and provided real-time data for dashboards maintained by the UN, WHO, World Bank and many individual governments and businesses. Our World in Data, for instance, used the Tracker’s data to publish visualizations across several different policy areas.

‘By tracking and comparing policy responses, the Tracker made it possible to study which measures were effective and which ones were not’, said Max Roser, Founder and Director of Our World in Data. ‘This information was crucial for decision-makers who needed to make informed choices about how to respond to the pandemic. No one else was systematically collecting this type of data, so the hundreds of volunteers and the staff who made this possible were doing truly important work.’

The core team were soon regularly engaged in advising governments and international organisations, including the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the World Health Organization, and the UK Cabinet Office, Department of Health and Social Care, and Prime Minister’s office.

A simulation of data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, produced by Our World in Data. This shows how a ‘stringency score’ of COVID-19 measures varied over the course of the pandemic for six countries. Credit: Our World In Data.

‘After being approached by the Cabinet Office’s International Comparator Joint Unit, we provided fortnightly updates for the Government and Prime Minister on trends and patterns and ad hoc “deep dive” data reports on specific topics, for example education policies’, said Thomas.

The COVID-19 Government Response Tracker has been an invaluable tool that helped researchers, the public, and political institutions around the world to understand and respond to the global pandemic. At Our World in Data, we are all very grateful that this data was collected and that we were able to make it accessible and understandable in real-time to those who were trying to track government responses around the world.

Max Roser, Founder and Director of Our World in Data 

In research, meanwhile, the team published a series of articles in leading journals including Nature Human Behaviour and The Lancet Public Health. Soon, the Tracker became the most-cited dataset of COVID-19 policy decisions in the world, with over three thousand academic citations recorded on Google Scholar to date. At peak periods, the core dataset was being downloaded several thousand times a week.

The Tracker also attracted enormous public interest, being featured in articles published in The New York Times, the Washington Post, Financial Times, National Geographic, BBC News, Al Jazeera, Le Monde, and The Economist, besides others.

But as Anna said, perhaps the most important impact was that the dataset was used directly by governments, international organisations, and public health agencies to decide how to respond to the ever-changing COVID-19 situation.

‘It changed the conversation at a time when certain leaders were questioning the value of science and of bureaucracies. Instead of endless back-and-forth arguments about what each government was or wasn’t doing (because we gave the world the data on that!), the dataset helped to push the discussion towards what was actually working or not.’

A new chapter

I feel very proud to have been involved with the project. Similar to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will be studied for many years to come, and this dataset will provide researchers with an immeasurably useful resource.

Andrew Read, COVID-19 Tracker volunteer

Thankfully, the peak of the pandemic passed and by the end of 2022, most countries had settled into their version of “the new normal.” With few new COVID-19 policies being released, the team made the decision to stop publishing real-time updates on the Tracker. But as Anna said, this does not mean that the project has come to an end.

‘Our work is changing in type, rather than ending. We will continue to analyse the dataset to better understand the different ways that governments prepare for and respond to pandemics, as well as the effects of COVID-19 policies on behaviour, health, the economy, and other outcomes. The data from the Tracker also has an important role to play in improving our preparedness for future outbreaks, and we are working closely with colleagues across the recently launched Oxford Pandemic Sciences Institute.

A portrait photograph of Shoaib KhanShoaib Khan
Whilst a return to near-normal life is to be celebrated, the end of the Tracker’s active phase has prompted mixed emotions. As Shoaib Khan, a technology policy researcher and Tracker volunteer from New Delhi, India, said: ‘Being involved with the Tracker has been a wonderful learning experience for public policy enthusiasts like me, and it was highly fulfilling to interact with people from across the world and the team at Oxford. For me, it is a sad moment that the project is ending, but all the contributors will never forget, and they will feel proud to have been a part of such a global collaborative effort.’

Thomas added, ‘Perhaps the most important lesson for me has been the extraordinary power of a group of volunteers, united by a common purpose to contribute to something bigger than themselves, to do something truly extraordinary. The whole world owes them a deep debt of gratitude.’

The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker team also wishes to thank the project’s major funders: The Blavatnik Family Foundation, Roche, ESRC, the New Venture Fund, PAX Sapiens, and Microsoft.

Key publications:
‘A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)’, Nature, March 2021.
‘What have we learned from tracking every government policy on COVID-19 for the past two years?’, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper Series, March 2022.
‘Variation in government responses to COVID-19’, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper Series, July 2022.
‘What would a data framework for policy responses to pandemic diseases look like?’, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper Series, February 2023.

An aerial view over part of the moon, with part of the surface in shadow.

A portrait photograph of Professor Joe Silk. Image credit: Joe Silk.Professor Joe Silk. Image credit: Joe Silk.
One of the most celebrated cosmologists of our time, Professor Joseph Silk has made seminal discoveries on the early evolution of the Universe, the nature of dark matter and how we may detect it, and galaxy formation. Between 1999 and 2011, he was the Savilian Chair of Astronomy at the University of Oxford’s Department of Physics.

He is currently an Emeritus Fellow of New College, a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Physical Society, the Institute of Physics, the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences. Besides authoring more than 900 academic publications, he has written several popular books including ‘The Big Bang’, ‘The Infinite Cosmos’, ‘On the Shores of the Unknown: A Short History of the Universe’, and ‘Cosmic Enigmas.’

Despite having received multiple lifetime achievement awards, Professor Silk shows no sign of slowing down yet. His latest book ‘Back to the Moon: The Next Giant Leap for Humankind’ was published in November 2022. He talks about his career to date, and how returning to the Moon could help us uncover our cosmic origins.

In your latest book 'Back to the Moon' you argue that returning to the Moon could open up a ‘thrilling new age of scientific exploration.’ Please can you explain this?

The answer to that really goes back to the question that has driven my entire career: What is the underlying structure of the Universe and where did it come from?

We know that the Universe started as a relatively homogenous, smooth and dense distribution of mass that eventually developed into what we see today, with galaxies, stars, planets, and so on. Cosmologists such as myself are intensely interested in that evolutionary process, which we study using powerful telescopes. Quite literally, these enable us to see back in time – but not quite as far as we would like to. To see back before there were any galaxies, before there was any light, that’s our greatest challenge. We can only do that with radio waves that can probe the gas clouds of atomic hydrogen from which all galaxies assembled.

It’s essentially impossible from the Earth because we need to look in really low radio frequencies to see back this far. But on the far side of the Moon, conditions are unbelievably well optimised for probing the dark ages of the Universe, before the first galaxies formed. It is this epoch that holds clues to our cosmic beginnings.

What do we understand at the moment?

The furthest back we can see in time is the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation, dating from 400,000 years after the Big Bang, long before there were any galaxies or stars. Basically, the CMB is the cooled remnant of the first light to travel freely through the Universe, and we experience it as a radio signal that originates from every point in the sky. At first, this signal appeared to be completely uniform, but with highly precise telescopes we eventually detected small variations. These correspond to tiny fluctuations in temperature, caused by ‘ripples’ in the underlying structure. These ripples get stronger over time, until gravity eventually pulls them together to develop into gas clouds and then galaxies.

We are now beginning to capture this phenomenon using large microwave telescopes in space and in remote areas on Earth. We glimpse the seeds. But I want to study how these seeds assembled into galaxies. I need to go back in time to before there were any galaxies, to see their building blocks. To see the wisps of hydrogen gas from which galaxies assembled. To learn where these irregularities came from in the first place – to go right back to the ‘dark ages’ before there was any light at all.

If we could see further back in time, what could this tell us?

Our current best theory is that the Universe began as highly dense matter, then went through a dramatic period of inflation in a fraction of a second to reach its current proportions. From this remote origin, we believe that the ripples we see in the CMB today were created from tiny, high-energy quantum fluctuations that expanded during the end of the inflationary phase into cosmological proportions. If we could see back far enough to probe these fluctuations, this glimpse into the darkness could verify that inflation occurred during the first quadrillionth of a nano-second of the Universe’s existence.

A heatmap-style image of the Cosmic Microwave Background. Temperature differences are shown as patches and squiggles in different colours. Image credit: ESA/Planck Collaboration.A map produced by the European Space Agency (ESA)'s Planck satellite (2009-2013) showing slight temperature differences across the Cosmic Microwave Background, CMB. Image credit: ESA/Planck Collaboration.

So, where does the Moon come into this?

We can’t see into the dark ages on Earth because a layer of ionized gas in our atmosphere acts as a surrounding blanket. The atmosphere is a good thing for life, but its ionosphere layer scatters low frequency radio wave signals. These are the ultimate messengers from the dark ages. In theory, the best place to set up a low frequency radio telescope would be in outer space, but this is extremely difficult for practical reasons. And even there we would be subject to radio interference from the Earth.

A more realistic prospect is the far side of the Moon. Because the Moon has no ionosphere, in terms of radio interference it is probably one of the quietest places in the inner solar system. And the far side of the Moon is shielded from all the radio waves coming from Earth, from mobile phone masts and maritime radar, for instance. It’s a stable platform where we could build incredibly large telescopes.

To be clear, this is a very long-term project that is only just beginning to undergo design studies. It could take anywhere between 10 and 30 years before these experiments come to fruition. But the journey is beginning, and even in the next few years we expect to be launching the first pathfinder projects to the far side of the Moon.

Besides mining, I envisage that the Moon will become a hub for lunar tourism and even interplanetary travel. Within its craters, there are huge resources of ice and water that could provide a source of hydrogen and oxygen for energy and rocket fuel. And because the Moon has a much lower gravity than Earth, it would make a great place to build a spaceport for rocket launches.

Are there other reasons we should go back to the Moon – for instance, to mine critical elements?

It is true that we are running out of semiconductor and rare earth materials that are critical for technologies such as computers and wind turbines. The Moon is a prime target for future mining expeditions because it is many thousands of times richer in these resources than Earth. This is due to its surface having been bombarded over billions of years by meteorites that have deposited layers of rare materials on its surface.

Besides mining, I envisage that the Moon will become a hub for lunar tourism and even interplanetary travel. Within its craters, there are huge resources of ice and water that could provide a source of hydrogen and oxygen for energy and rocket fuel. And because the Moon has a much lower gravity than Earth, it would make a great place to build a spaceport for rocket launches. The first step is likely to be NASA’s Artemis programme which envisages launches from a lunar space station, following the return of astronauts to the lunar surface within three or four years from now.

Apart from lunar exploration, what else are you researching at the moment?

What is the nature of the dark matter? That’s one of the greatest puzzles in astrophysicsDark matter is the dominant form of matter in galaxies, and indeed in the Universe. Yet it is not the ordinary matter that stars are made of, and only interacts very weakly with ordinary matter. Most likely it consists of an as yet undiscovered elementary particle. I have proposed ingenious techniques for detecting such particles. For example, dark matter particles may interact with themselves. They can annihilate or decay, and produce electromagnetic signals that are potentially detectable, such as gamma rays.

There is a mysterious excess of gamma radiation from the centre of the Milky Way galaxy. That’s where the density of dark matter is highest. Perhaps this is a signal from dark matter, or perhaps it’s the cumulative emission from astrophysical sources such as a large abundance of rapidly spinning old neutron stars, which are known to be weak gamma ray sources. We don’t know and are seeking other tests, such as examining nearby dwarf galaxies, known repositories of dark matter. So far, the jury is out.

Artistic image showing an array of solar panels on the surface of the moon, next to several astronauts and a dome-shaped greenhouse containing plants.Artist impression of activities in a Moon Base. Power generation from solar cells, food production in greenhouses and construction using mobile 3D printer-rovers. Image credit: ESA / P. Carril.

You were appointed as the University of Oxford’s Savilian Professor of Astronomy (from 1999 to September 2011), one of Oxford's oldest chair positions, founded in 1619. What were your key achievements in this role?

Oxford has a very illustrious past for astronomy, most notably the discovery around 1705 by Savilian Professor Edmond Halley in an attic observatory on New College Lane of the periodic appearances of the comet now named after him. But when I arrived some three and a half centuries later, the Savilian chair had somewhat lost its momentum in its impact on Oxford astronomy. I am proud of the role I played to drive cosmology forward, in particular by developing several major research themes in surveying distant galaxies, galaxy formation, and the nature of gravity.

During my period of leadership, I oversaw the appointments of several young researchers who have since evolved into international leaders in their various fields of research. I founded the Beecroft Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology in 2003, now a thriving hub of cosmology research. For instance, one of the leading numerical simulations of the Universe was developed at Oxford, and is now widely used to understand how the diverse properties of galaxies are generated. Another achievement was exploring alternatives to Einstein’s theory of gravity to monitor the relevance of challenges to our canonical model of structure formation, the cold dark matter theory, and to tensions in our measures of the rate at which the Universe is expanding.

I need to go back in time to before there were any galaxies, to see their building blocks. To see the wisps of hydrogen gas from which galaxies assembled. To learn where these irregularities came from in the first place – to go right back to the ‘dark ages’ before there was any light at all.

You have authored over 900 publications; which one are you most proud of?

This would have to be one of my first papers, ‘Fluctuations in the primordial fireball’, published in Nature in 1967. In this short paper, I predicted the presence of primordial temperature fluctuations in the CMB. I argued that tiny seeds, overdensities or underdensities in the intensity of radiation, had to be present at the beginning of time, as otherwise Einstein’s theory of gravity could not adequately explain galaxy formation. Detection would be a crucial test of gravitational theory and of the Big Bang itself. It took a very long time, around 30 years, but eventually these temperature fluctuations were found – one of the proudest moments of my life!

Have you always been interested in outer space?

Not at all! I grew up in London, so only saw the stars on occasional camping trips with the Boy Scouts. I actually read mathematics as an undergraduate at the University of Cambridge. During my final year, I found that the prospect of becoming an actuary or something like that left me rather bored. So, when I was procrastinating instead of revising for my final exams, I started wandering around lectures for different subjects, sitting at the back so no one would notice my ‘unauthorised’ presence.

I stumbled across the charismatic cosmologist Dennis Sciama, whose lectures blew my mind away. He was explaining how Albert Einstein was himself inspired by Mach’s principle. Ernst Mach was a 19th century physicist/philosopher who argued that the inertia of our local reference frame is determined by the distant stars – or to put it more simply, that local physical laws are determined by the large-scale distribution of matter in the Universe. I realised that our amazing Universe was motivating very deep questions that really fired me up.

This led me to do a diploma course in Physics at Manchester University. There I did a research project with an eminent radio astronomer, Roger Jennison, one of the founders of radio interferometry. This went so well that it opened the way to a graduate fellowship provided by the precursor of what is now the European Space Agency. I chose Harvard University because I wanted to work with cosmologist David Layzer, whose specialty was the formation of structure in the expanding universe. I was fortunate that I began my PhD at Harvard just after the major discovery of the CMB, which opened up a completely new and unexplored territory in cosmology that has sustained almost my entire career.

Four book covers from books authored by Professor Joe Silk. These show images of galaxy formation and the moon.A selection of the popular science books authored by Professor Joe Silk.

Do you think there is life out there?

That is the question that will always capture the public’s imagination. It is an exciting time now that we can probe the atmospheres of distant planets for signatures that could be indicative of life: oxygen, chlorophyll, methane, etc. But there really are no guarantees. It is hard to even estimate the number of planets we would need to look at to make discovering extra-terrestrial life a likely probability. Life is fragile, and it is likely to be a rare phenomenon. And the number of Earth-like planets that are relatively close to us is very limited.

There is only one way to pursue this goal. To find large numbers of Earth-like twins, that is planets with rocky cores, an atmosphere, and close to stars like our sun, we need a very large telescope in space. Realistically, that could best be constructed on the Moon – giving us another reason to invest in lunar exploration.

What have been some of the most exciting technological advancements in cosmology during your career?

Certainly, the incredible rise in computational power and our ability now to make very detailed, precise computer simulations of all sorts of phenomena. In my early career work on galaxy formation, my ‘models’ were cartoons along with a few simple equations. Now, using powerful computers, we can make incredible simulations of galaxies that are almost indistinguishable from the real thing.

You have written several cosmology books for the general public. How important is it that the public are interested in space science?

I do believe that it is important to engage the public with our work, and not just because they pay our bills and fund our research. The beauty and mystery of space has an ability to inspire awe that few things can come close to. So, it is only right that we open up our notebooks to the general public, and explain the rationale behind our goals in answering the great questions of the Universe. In this way, we build up interest and momentum to keep up what we are doing.

You can learn more about Professor Silk’s work in a series of video talks: The Physics of Fine-Tuning. These discuss how the laws of physics, the initial conditions of the universe, and features of our local world work together to produce the world we live in.

Glossary:

Dark matter: A proposed component of the Universe which cannot be seen because it does not absorb, reflect, or emit electromagnetic radiation. Its presence can only be inferred from its gravitational attraction on visible matter. Dark matter is thought to account for around 27% of the Universe; the rest is dark energy (68%) and normal visible matter (5%).

Portrait of Peter Horby

Professor Sir Peter Horby, Director of Oxford’s Pandemic Sciences Institute, explains how building relationships across scientific disciplines, sectors and global regions are key to preventing and preparing for future pandemics.

The COVID-19 pandemic changed the world. Nowhere was left untouched, from bereaved families to personal freedoms and global economies.

But it also changed the interaction between science and the public in a way that caught some by surprise. Scientists who had previously existed in a world of research and academia were suddenly thrust into the public eye and being asked to provide solutions for a frightening and fast-moving global crisis.

We have learned a lot from the pandemic, not only about how diseases like COVID spread but also about our own capability and capacity to respond.

The rapid development of the Oxford AstraZeneca COVID vaccine, diagnostic tests, the RECOVERY trial, and contact tracing apps were only possible because of our extensive partnerships with other researchers, as well as with healthcare providers and industry partners across the UK and internationally. It was these existing relationships, as well as the significant depth of our prior research into diseases like MERS, Ebola and influenza, that made such fast development of responses to COVID possible.

This week the Pandemic Sciences Institute held its first annual International Pandemic Sciences Conference here in Oxford, where we welcomed more than 450 participants from 40 countries, representing scientists, ethicists, industry partners and funders who were deeply involved in developing the new approaches that were rapidly developed and deployed during the pandemic.

Getting people together to share the latest scientific breakthroughs is important, but just as crucial is providing an opportunity for people to meet face-to-face and build relationships. These relationships are the glue that will make the global response to the next pandemic faster, more efficient and more cohesive.

The theme of the conference was ‘Making the Exceptional Routine’, which was to emphasise the fact that there is no room for complacency about future epidemic and pandemic threats. It is important that we continue to learn from one another and ensure that the exceptional ways of working that we developed quickly and under pressure over the past few years can become the new business as usual in pandemic sciences.

For the Pandemic Sciences Institute this means not only generating new understanding but also translating this knowledge into practical, real-world interventions such as diagnostics, vaccines and medicines. It also means considering the social, ethical and policy dimensions from the outset to ensure pandemic responses are acceptable, equitable and minimally disruptive.

With sufficient determination and resources, we know we can radically accelerate the development and implementation of interventions that benefit humanity. But it is vitally important that we ensure that while encouraging academic excellence we also foster equitable partnerships to safeguard health and economic stability for future generations in every part of our world.

Watch video highlights of the International Pandemic Sciences Conference.