20 Oct 11

Major challenges associated with migration and environmental change 'have been underestimated', according to a major new report. The report by Foresight is based on advice from a six-strong team of experts, including Professor David Thomas and Professor Stefan Dercon from Oxford University.  

The 'Migration and Global Environmental Change' project is published by the Foresight project (for the Government Office for Science). It concludes that by focusing solely on those that might leave vulnerable areas, we risk neglecting those that will be 'trapped' and those that will actually move towards danger.

It also shows that migration can have a transformative role in helping communities adapt to hazardous conditions, which it describes as a 'critical finding for policy makers' working to avert costly humanitarian disasters in the future.

The report examines how profound changes in environmental conditions such as flooding, drought and rising sea levels will influence and interact with patterns of global human migration over the next 50 years. These patterns of human movement, 75 per cent of which are internal, will present major challenges as well as potential opportunities for communities and policy makers at both a national and international level.

Commenting on the report, Professor David Thomas said: 'Future migration issues and associations with environmental change are complex: it is not simply a story of 'climate refugees'. Rather, critical concerns include the millions who will be trapped in areas prone to growing environmental risks, especially in low-income countries, and the movement of people towards areas where climate and environmental risks are going to grow in the next 50 years. Low-lying coastal zones, and the rapidly growing cities that they support, particularly in Asia and Africa, are particular issues policy makers should focus on.'

Millions will be 'trapped'
Millions will be 'trapped' in vulnerable areas and unable to move, particularly in poorer countries, says the report. Migration is costly, and with environmental conditions such as drought and flooding affecting people's livelihoods, migration - particularly over long distances - may be less possible in many situations.

Migrants will move towards environmentally vulnerable areas
Rural to urban migration is set to continue, but many cities in the developing world are already failing their citizens with flooding, water shortages and inadequate housing, says the report. Preliminary estimates show that up to 192 million more people will be living in urban coastal floodplains in Africa and Asia by 2060, through both natural population growth and rural-urban migration.

Migrants will demonstrate an ability to adapt
Migration can transform people's ability to cope with environmental change, opening up new sources of income which help people become stronger and more resilient. For instance, 2009 remittances to low-income countries were at $307 billion, nearly three times the value of overseas development aid. These kinds of income flows may actually make it possible for households, particularly in low income countries, to stay in situ for longer.

In summary, the report finds that environmental change will affect the movement of populations. However, because of the range of factors influencing the decision to migrate, environmental threats will rarely be the sole driver of migration, nor will the policy challenges be limited to people moving away from areas of risk.

The findings have implications for a broad range of policy areas well beyond the migration and environmental spheres, including sustainable development, climate change adaptation, urban planning and humanitarian assistance.

Professor David Thomas is Head of Oxford's School of Geography and the Environment. Professor Stefan Dercon is a development economist in Oxford's Department of International Development.