Policy

16 Feb 09

Oxford researchers feel a new runway at Heathrow Airport will give little economic help to the UK. Credit: Louise Marcus-Hamilton

The Government claims that a third runway at Heathrow airport is our main gateway to the global economy, but Oxford University researchers who have spent nine years analysing the UK aviation industry dispute that view. Their research will be part of a body of evidence to be submitted to the Transport Select Committee, which meets on 25 February to discuss the future of aviation – including the government-approved proposal for Heathrow.

According to independent research, led by Professor David Banister and Dr Moshe Givoni, a third runway at Heathrow Airport would be likely to provide some benefit to London, but little to the UK regions. Their research also concludes that the need to provide a Heathrow stop on the UK main rail network should be at the heart of the government’s aviation policy.

However, they suggest that rail access to the airport from the rest of the country is being treated as an ancillary issue; only after decisions about airport infrastructure and terminals have been made.

Professor David Banister, Director of the Transport Studies Unit at Oxford University, said: ‘Regional airports are currently more likely to use overseas hubs, than Heathrow. For instance, Amsterdam serves 21 regional airports in the UK, using mainly foreign airlines. Therefore, Government claims that Heathrow’s third runway will bring economic benefits to the whole of the UK ring somewhat hollow.’

Following an analysis of recent airlines’ flight patterns, and research into other European airports and air-rail substitution, they argue that a third runway will not solve the capacity problem and the airport will therefore continue to focus on the most profitable flights at the expense of the domestic short-haul.

The Government’s own figures show the UK regions are increasingly losing access to Heathrow and its global network of flights. In 1990, 18 destinations in the regions were served from Heathrow by 118 round trips per day, but in 2004 these figures fell to only eight destinations and 84 round trips per day. The number of scheduled international destinations served by Heathrow has fallen from 227 in 1990 to 180 in 2006.

Their research suggests that the new capacity provided by a third runway would not be likely to change substantially the number of destinations served by Heathrow.

Dr Moshe Givoni, Senior Researcher in Transport Policy and Economics, said: ‘Our research shows two main forces are shaping services at Heathrow. Firstly, the recent EU-US ‘open sky’ agreement, which draws more airlines to the lucrative trans-Atlantic routes, with the US expected to take up significant new capacity at Heathrow. Secondly, a key priority for the government is that Heathrow is a transfer airport. Paradoxically, the provision of facilities for transfer passengers would reduce airport and runway capacity at Heathrow even further.’

According to research, carried out by the Transport Studies Unit, most of Heathrow’s passengers come from the South East of England and this pattern is likely to continue. Although the airport is relatively well connected to the motorway network, half of passengers who come to Heathrow by car (22m in 2006) are from Greater London.

Dr Givoni said: ‘The Government proposes a new high-speed rail link to Heathrow linking it with the north. Yet, there is no firm commitment from the government on this issue and the construction of Heathrow airport’s third runway could well start long before any rail link is in place.

'A third runway at Heathrow is unlikely to meet the government’s aviation policy of securing air transport with social and economic benefits at low environmental impact. This impasse can be significantly bridged if Heathrow becomes an important stop on the main UK rail network, whether it is a high-speed link or not.'