13 Mar 07

Oxford University researchers have unveiled a model which can demonstrate the carbon emissions from UK housing in different scenarios to 2050. The Environmental Change Institute has made the model publicly available on the day that the government set a target to cut carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.

The model provides a detailed analysis of all energy use in the whole housing stock. Homes account for more than a quarter of all UK carbon emissions. Three scenarios to 2050 are provided, but users can devise their own projections. The model illustrates what needs to happen by when, and can be used to underpin both policy design and monitoring of progress, as outlined in the government's Climate Change Bill launched today.

In Scenario A, current policies continue with no major change in technology, emissions would only fall to 10 per cent below 1996 levels by 2050. In this scenario, almost 40 per cent of homes would have some form of micro-generation (solar panels that generate electricity or hot water, combined heat and power, heat pumps or heating from wood fuels or waste fuels). However, improvements in efficiency would be outweighed by increased demands for energy. In Scenario B, a 60 per cent cut in emissions could be achieved through changes in policy, technology and behaviour. In Scenario C, where emissions could fall to 25 per cent of 1996 levels by 2050, there is on average more than one micro-generation device per dwelling AND significant restraint on demands for additional energy services. Scenario C could be achieved only with a lot more legislation tackling climate change, coupled with behavioural and technological change.The researchers say more than a 60 per cent cut from housing may be needed because emissions savings from other sectors like transport and aviation are harder to make.

The model, funded by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Carbon Trust, accompanies the background report undertaken by ECI for the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution's 26^th report on Urban Environments, launched on 6 March 2007.

Launching the model and the analysis, Leader of the Lower Carbon Futures Group Dr Brenda Boardman, said: 'We have confirmed that a 60 per cent reduction in carbon emissions from housing is possible, indeed, we could go as far as a 75 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050. But to get these reductions, effective policies have to be introduced now. The longer we delay, the more we will have to do.'

Senior researcher Dr Mark Hinnells said: 'Today's Bill is welcome and the government is doing well with its plans for all new homes to be zero carbon by 2016, but significant refurbishment of the existing stock is the key factor in reducing overall emissions. Programmes and policy need to focus on whole-house refurbishment. In addition, there is huge scope to reduce electricity use in lights and appliances through minimum efficiency standards.'

Highlighting the importance of the work, Dr Boardman said: 'The model enables people to see the impact of policy decisions on the level of carbon dioxide emissions, for instance through the rate of demolition, the installation of micro-generation and lifestyle changes. There are numerous options, but the challenge is huge.'