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Oxford University researchers tackle the end of the world

9 July 2008 

Will the human species survive the 21st century? What are the biggest threats to global civilization and human well-being? Are we addressing the right risks? These questions will be examined at a unique conference hosted by Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute, part of the Philosophy Faculty, from 17 to 20 July 2008.

While in recent years, much effort has gone into preventing or mitigating certain kinds of disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and terrorism, other risks have not been studied much.

Therefore the conference, ‘Global Catastrophic Risks’, will examine risks that seriously threaten human well-being on a global scale. These could include volcanic eruptions to pandemic infections, nuclear accidents to worldwide tyrannies, out-of-control scientific experiments to climatic changes, and cosmic hazards to economic collapse.

Dr Nick Bostrom, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, believes that addressing global catastrophic risks as a single field can help us deal with them more efficiently.

He said: “Attention is scarce. Mitigation is costly. To decide how to allocate effort and resources, we must make comparative judgments. With global catastrophic risks, the choice is not whether to ignore them or to indulge in gloomy despondency: the challenge is to seek understanding and take the most cost-effective steps to make the world safer.”

The conference will begin to address this need by hosting a number of leading experts on a range of different global catastrophic risks. Held at Oxford University’s Saїd Business School, it is intended to advance knowledge and increase academic interest in the area and provide a forum to discuss the common problems and methodologies, which affect the study of global catastrophic risks.

Global catastrophes that cause more than 10 million deaths have occurred many times in history. They include the famine of the Great Leap Forward in China, the Black Death in Europe, the Spanish flu pandemic, the two World Wars, the Nazi genocides, the famines in British India, Stalinist totalitarianism, and the decimation of the Native American population through smallpox and other diseases following European colonization.

Researchers from the FHI believe some general insights, for example, into the biases of human risk cognition, can be applied to many different risks and used to improve our assessments, and therefore our preparedness, across the board.

A new book on this subject, ‘Global Catastrophic Risks’, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic, will be launched at the conference.

FHI director, Dr Nick Bostrom, is available for interviews. Contact him on 01865 286889 (office).

For more information please contact the Oxford University Press Office on press.office@admin.ox.ac.uk or 01865 270046

Notes to Editors

  •  The Future of Humanity Institute (www.fhi.ox.ac.uk) is a unique multidisciplinary research Institute at the University of Oxford and is part of the Philosophy Faculty and the James Martin 21stCentury School.
  • FHI’s mission is to bring excellent scholarship to bear on big picture questions for humanity. One of our research areas is global catastrophic risk.
  • Dr Nick Bostrom is the Director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. He previously taught in the Faculty of Philosophy and in the Institute for Social and Policy Studies at Yale University. As well as philosophy, he has a background in physics and computational neuroscience. Dr. Bostrom’s research covers the foundations of probability theory, scientific methodology, risk analysis, and he is one of the world’s leading experts on ethical issues related to human enhancement and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and nanotechnology.  He worked briefly as an expert consultant for the European Commission in Brussels and for the Central Intelligence Agency in Washington DC.
  • On the eve of the conference a new book will also be launched outlining the main catastrophic risks, and the problems and methodologies they share: Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford University Press, 2008).
  • Among the speakers are several members of the James Martin 21st Century School at the University of Oxford, which exists to develop strategies for responding to the most serious problems of the 21st Century.  Dr Dave Frame will review the evidence for and against the hypothesis that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity in ‘Climate Change, Catastrophe and Uncertainty’; Professor Steve Rayner will speak about ‘Culture and the Credibility of Catastrophe’; Dr Peter Taylor on

  • ‘Insurance and Catastrophes’; Dr Rafaela Hillerbrand, Dr Anders Sandberg and Toby Ord on ‘Probing the Improbable. Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes’; and Sir Crispin Tickell will explore the need to change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs in ‘Humans: Past, Present and Future’.

  • For more information on the conference or the FHI visit www.fhi.ox.ac.uk or www.global-catastrophic-risks.com. FHI’s Projects Officer, Victoria Bristow, can also provide information on 01865 286279 or via email: Victoria.Bristow@philosophy.ox.ac.uk.

    or more information on the conference or the FHI visit www.fhi.ox.ac.uk or www.global-catastrophic-risks.com. FHI’s Projects Officer, Victoria Bristow, can also provide information on 01865 286279 or via email: Victoria.Bristow@philosophy.ox.ac.uk.

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