Altitude ‘worth half a goal a kilometre’
19 December 2007
Football teams from high altitude countries are likely to score more goals and concede fewer goals whether they are playing at high or low altitude, according to new research from Oxford University.
The study, published in this week’s BMJ, is the first hard evidence that altitude provides a significant advantage in football. The work involved statistical analysis of FIFA data on 1,460 football matches in ten countries spanning 100 years. It could result in football authorities adopting new measures to help teams from lower altitudes prepare and make matches fairer.
Dr Patrick McSharry of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science, who did the analysis, said: ‘There are so many variables in an international football match that determine the winner that you have to look at data from a large number of teams and individual games to isolate one particular factor. In this new analysis of over a thousand games I found that, perhaps surprisingly, whatever altitude a match was played at the high altitude team had a significant statistical advantage. This advantage is worth as much as half of a goal a game for every thousand metres of altitude.’
In May 2007 FIFA, football’s governing body, banned international matches from being played at more than 2,500 metres above sea level because of the difficulties players from lower altitudes face trying to acclimatise to high altitude. At altitude lack of oxygen (hypoxia), cold and dehydration can lead to breathlessness, headaches, nausea, dizziness and fatigue and, in some severe cases, life-threatening swelling in and around the heart or brain. Scientists cannot currently predict who is likely to develop the more severe forms of altitude sickness.
‘In the long term it would be great if we could assess which players were most susceptible to altitude illnesses and use this to inform team selection,’ said Dr McSharry. ‘Until we can do that the best way to make matches fairer is probably to give teams from lower altitudes longer to prepare and acclimatise to conditions, although obviously this is likely to affect the schedule for big international tournaments and could have other implications which FIFA will have to consider very carefully before making any changes.’
For more information contact Dr Patrick McSharry on email mcsharry@robots.ox.ac.uk Alternatively contact the University of Oxford Press Office on +44 (01865) 283877 or by email at press.office@admin.ox.ac.uk