Scotland's Choices: The Referendum and What Happens Afterwards

As Scotland prepares to vote yes or no to the referendum question “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, a new book gives comprehensive answers to all the leading questions at the heart of the debate. The book, Scotland’s Choices: The Referendum and What Happens Afterwards, is written by leading experts including Oxford Professor of Politics, Iain McLean. Co authors are Guy Lodge, Gwilym Gibbon Fellow at Nuffield College and Associate Director of the Institute for Public Policy Research and Jim Gallagher, Gwilym Gibbon Fellow, former director-general for devolution in the UK government and a former adviser to the Prime Minister on devolution strategy.

The book details the background to the referendum; assesses the arguments put forward on both sides of the debate; the implications of the choices, and examines what would happen next:

On international issues, it says that for an independent state, application to bodies like the UN and the Council of Europe will be largely formalities, but membership of the European Union and NATO would be less straightforward.  An independent Scotland would not automatically become a member of the EU, but it is likely membership would be agreed on an accelerated basis, and might carry conditions. For instance an independent Scotland might have to promise to join the euro at some point in the future.  It is unlikely an independent Scotland would be offered any rebate, it suggests.

On currency, the authors argue that the single most important economic issue would be whether an independent Scotland chooses the pound Sterling; a new pound Scots or the euro.

On oil, assuming that an independent Scotland got the vast bulk of North Sea oil, the country would be able to maintain the present level of public services, provided it was willing to spend all of its oil revenue.

On defence, an independent Scotland would need to be responsible for its own defence policies, with its own armed forces and might be a member of NATO. The book raises the question about what happens to the UK’s nuclear deterrent currently housed at Faslane and Coulport.

On borrowing, an independent Scotland would need to establish a track record with lenders. Until its credit rating is established, the authors argue that it is unlikely Scotland could borrow at the same low rates as the UK currently does.

On economy and trade, the authors argue that there is no certainty about whether Scotland would be more or less prosperous, but the risks and opportunities for the Scottish economy are both explored.

Books asked Professor Iain McLean about the research:

How likely do you think it is that the people of Scotland will vote ‘yes’ for independence?
Recent polls have shown that 50 percent of the Scots are currently against the idea of independence from the UK. Thirty percent of Scots say ‘yes’ to independence and 20 percent don’t know; but these things could change dramatically between now and 18 September 2014 when the Scottish people vote on the referendum.

What do you think is the main deciding issue for the people of Scotland?
Overall, the main factor for most of the Scottish electorate is whether they think independence is likely to make them better off or not. So the ‘yes’ camp might think that independence will mean that taxes are likely to go down or Gross National Product will go up or that both of these things are likely to happen.

What would happen to the Scottish MPs currently sitting in Westminster?   
If the result is ‘yes’ to Scottish independence, they would have to leave Westminster. The next Westminster election is in 2015, which will be before negotiations with the SNP will have been concluded.  It is unlikely that people will want to vote Scottish MPs into Westminster after 2015 given they will not be able to hold onto their seats.  Even if the Scottish electorate vote ‘no’ to the idea, the number of Scottish MPs sitting in Westminster may drop because maintaining the status quo will not be acceptable in England given the amount of power that has already shifted to the Scottish parliament.

If they vote ‘no’, what is likely to happen next? Is Scotland likely to seek a diluted form of devolution?
It would mean the full implementation of the Scotland act 2012, which requires the Scottish parliament to set a tax rate. There is a range of options for further devolution which might follow the referendum or a general election. The union may become looser and less centralised, and the price of greater devolution could be less influence at the centre and a weaker claim on common resources.

Do you think that if Scotland becomes independent, this would herald a bigger breakup of the United Kingdom with Wales then wanting to follow suit?
No, the proportion of Welsh who want independence is much lower than it is in Scotland. The situation in Northern Ireland is very different: there might be a vote to leave the UK when its population is mainly Catholic, but Scottish devolution would be unlikely to cause a chain reaction there.