Fertility Rates and Population Decline: No Time for Children?

A new book  explores the far reaching implications of the dramatic decline in fertility rates across the world. It includes the latest research from leading international academics who all seem to agree that the world population is likely to decline by 2050.

Edited by Professor Ann Buchanan, Senior Research Associate in the Department of Social Policy and Intervention and Professor Anna Rotkirch, Director of the Population Research Centre, Väestöliitto, Finland, the book suggests current family policies are having ‘very little effect’ on reversing the decline in birth rates and the increase in childlessness.

The book also warns that serious consequences could include slower economic growth, labour shortages, reduced consumption and lead to considerable pressure on women to fill the gaps in the labour market alongside caring for their children and elderly relatives. It concludes that in future, families may need far more assistance to reconcile work and family life.

Other findings in the book:

*The world is shifting to a two-child family model. Global fertility rates are unlikely to increase; and in regions such as Africa and South America, they will continue to fall dramatically this century.

*Fertility in East Asia is now the lowest in the world: total fertility rates (the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime) are currently between 1.1 and 1.3 in Japan, South Korea and Singapore. In European countries (Germany, Austria and Italy), total fertility rates are at around 1.4 and only some countries come close to population replacement level of 2.1.

*There is also a trend for an increasing proportion of women and men to remain childless globally. The proportion of women remaining childless rose substantially from about one in eight in the UK just after the Second World War to one in five for those born around 1970.

*In China, although some families are now allowed two children, the one-child family appears to have rooted itself as a social norm.

*By the middle of the 21st century, the proportion of people under the age of 25 will have fallen to less than 20 per cent. Correspondingly, the proportion over the age of 60 will have increased to one-fifth.

Books asked Professor Ann Buchanan about the research:

The book is a collection of views from academics around the world. How did you choose your contributors?
The idea for the book followed a visit to Beijing 2010 when I was invited by the Chinese Academy of Social Science to speak on 'the family’. When I arrived I discovered that their chief concern was falling fertility, and of course I thought they were referring to the one-child policy.  I discovered that what they were really worried about was the main finding of research by Professor Zheng (who has written a chapter in my book) and others who had shown that when lone children planned their own families, they now felt ‘one child was about right' and did not want two children. With the possibility of a population decline, Chinese scholars were concerned about the impact on their economy and other scholars from East Asia, where there were no policies limiting families, demonstrated that the one-child family was now becoming a norm right across East Asia. This raised questions and on my return to Oxford, I consulted demographers and others in the University's Department of Social Policy and Intervention. Anna Rotkirch, a demographer from Finland with Russian links, was on sabbatical with us and decided to be a co-editor.  Through the book, we invited world-leading contributors  to explore not only the facts and figures but also to use country case-studies to throw light on the reasons behind falling fertility in the different world area. Some contributors are sociologists, others psychologists or social policy experts; one is a paediatric epidemiologist researching HIV in Africa.  Another aim of the book was to consider the possible effects of falling fertility. While I wrote about the impact of this phenomenon on children and families, Sarah Harper, Oxford University Professor of Gerontology has written about the impact of ageing and the co-editor Anna Rotkirch has explored the impact of childlessness. Finally we invited distinguished social policy experts such as Professor Gosta Esping-Andersen and Professor Anne Gauthier to consider possible policy responses.

What are the main reasons for people deciding not to have children or having fewer children?
The main reason is the availability and acceptance of effective contraception, but our country case-studies show how cultural, economic and social attitudes also influence fertility behaviour. In the developed world, although family friendly policies  improve the wellbeing of parents and children, they only marginally increase birth rates.

Why was the book launched by the European parliament on 15 May?
I had spoken at a Coface (Confederation of Family Organisations in Europe) conference in Dublin, and was well received. Coface used the launch of our book to start the debate on  the 2014 European Year for Reconciling Work and Family Life with MEPs  Marian Harkin and Phil Prendergast  hosting the event.  Oxford academics Professor David Coleman, Dr Stuart Basten and I presented the research contained in the book, alongside Anna Rotkirch and Anne Gauthier;  Daniela Bakier, head of DG Justice and Dagmar Schmacher, Director of UN women.

The research suggests that the birth rate will continue to dramatically decline and the percentage of under-25s will be less than one-fifth by 2050. Is this trend likely to be irreversible and this is the last century of youth?
Demographers are cautious as fertility behaviour is always unpredictable, but the consensus from the evidence in our book was that the birth rate will continue to fall dramatically, particularly as prosperity comes to high fertility areas such as Africa.  In the developed world, Total Fertility Rates are likely to remain below two. This does indeed mean that the under-25s are likely to be less than one-fifth of the population by 2050.

How will this change the quality of life for young people born in the middle of this century?
Generally this is good news for children. As UNDP shows the main driver for reduction in poverty and greater well-being for children has been falling fertility.  For those children who are at the margins of society, it is also good news, as governments will be keen to train and recruit them to fill the gaps in the work force.

With ageing populations to provide for all over the world, will this put more pressure on the dwindling young workforce? The main stress  is likely to be felt by the ‘stretched middle’ generations reaching up to care for their elders and down to care for their children while being encouraged to increase their education and enter the workforce.